NWS Grand Junction, CO Point Forecast: Ouray CO 38.08N 107.7W (Elev. 7872 ft) Last Update: 4:04 pm MST Jan 5, 2009 Hazardous weather condition(s): [8]Hazardous Weather Outlook Tonight: Snow likely, mainly after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 13. West southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. South southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph. Tuesday Night: A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. South southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. South wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 14. South southwest wind around 5 mph. Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 34. Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. Friday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Friday Night: A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 30. Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 13. Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 30. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 14. Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 30. Current Local Weather Telluride Regional Lat: 37.94 Lon: -107.77 Elev: 9085 Last Update on Jan 5, 5:10 pm MST Overcast 21°F (-6°C) Humidity: 58 % Wind Speed: W 9 MPH Barometer: 29.75" Dewpoint: 9°F (-13°C) Wind Chill: 11°F (-12°C) Visibility: 10.00 mi. [10]More Local Wx: CO 253 PM MST MON JAN 5 2009 ...PERSISTENT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED OVER MOST MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS WE MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS AT LEAST TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FIRST SYSTEM ARRIVES TONIGHT AND EXPECTED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW TO BREAK OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST UTAH. THIS WAVE BRINGS A QUICK 2 TO 5 INCHES TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT... BEFORE WE SEE A BRIEF BREAK ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY STRONG WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY WORK AGAINST HEAVY PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...COLD AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS WE WORK INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN THIS COLD DOME AND EXPECT A FAIRLY STEADY...ALBEIT LIGHT...SNOW TO FALL OVER THE PARK RANGE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS THINKING WITH COLD AIR ENTRENCHED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE. PERSISTENT SNOWFALL AND DECENT H7 FLOW RUNNING NEAR 40 KTS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE WINTER STORM CRITERIA FOR SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT...HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONE 4 TO A WARNING. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED ZONE 5...STEAMBOAT SPRINGS...TO AN ADVISORY WITH GOOD OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT SQUEEZING OUT 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE SAME TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE LOWER VALLEYS THE LAST TO MIX OUT AS WE CONTINUE TO WAIT FOR A STRONGER SFC FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH. SO WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... MOP-UP UNDERWAY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WITH WARM ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION. THE FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SCOOTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SCHEDULED FOR FRIDAY. THE GFS HAS TAKEN A DIFFERENT APPROACH FOR THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS...THE 06Z AND 12Z RUNS...IN CONTRAST THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF...AND THE EARLIER 00Z GFS RUN. THIS LATER GFS SOLUTION SPLITS THE FLOW AND CUTS OFF A LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS KEEPS OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE DRY SIDE... BETWEEN THE AREAS OF BEST ENERGY/MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...SHOWS GOOD CONSISTENCY IN BRINGING AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI. THEREFORE...HAVE PRETTY MUCH KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH THU NIGHT THEN SPREADING ON FRI. HOWEVER WITH TWO RUNS OF THE GFS WITH THE SPLIT SOLUTION CONFIDENCE HAS SUFFERED. THE OTHER CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURES. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SINCE MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE COLD AND INVERTED VALLEY AREAS WITH THE WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER.
